From S/A:Angry Faces As Food Price Raises.

 

The South African media have been full of stories about the current drought that has gripped many parts of the northern and central regions of the country. The reporting has also been full of superlatives: this is the worst drought since 1992, for instance, or in other reports since 1984.

Although it's too early to make such claims because the summer rainfall season is not yet over, it is nevertheless true that the country is in the grip of a severe drought. There therefore the potential for a large-scale disaster in agriculture, and forward planning needs information on what possible scenarios can play out.

To this end the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy has harnessed its economic models to help illuminate what could possible happen and what can be done to address the problems that the country potentially faces.

What is known is that a drought, particularly in the maize-producing areas of the country, can have a devastating impact on food security, income distribution, the logistics of the agricultural industry, and on environmental sustainability. Best be forewarned about these potential impacts rather than merely react when it is usually too late.

Maize is important to the South African food chain because it is the staple of poor people, and because it is the main source of energy for animal feeds. Droughts result in smaller harvests and therefore higher prices. This is bad for the poor, especially in the case of white maize where it is difficult to source imports.